How would you
assess the popularity of watches as investments now and how has this evolved?
The popularity per se has not changed. The
market as a whole sees better and more liquid ways of increasing monetary
values of their assets. This means shares and financial instruments.
However, what has changed is that a
privileged segment of the market divides investments into money separate from
wealth.
What are the factors driving this trend?
Possibly it is “cool” to be EDUCATED and
YOUNG. And GREEN.
Noting that R Buckminster Fuller said
“effective exploratory investment (of the mind and one’s time) is to give man
increased wealth”. EDUCATED.
This includes broadly what Buckminster
Fuller defines as “future influence”, which among them are education, perspectives,
culture and science.YOUNG.
These and occasionally money, are increased
with a passion for understanding complex watches. Why? Because the watch are
among the rare surviving machines that need neither electricity nor fossil
fuel. GREEN.
What are the factors affecting investment potential/value in watches?
The market for
rare, labor intensive watches are growing at a rate that can be measured by the
number of used and grey market watch dealers that have sprung up both as brick
and mortar shops and as internet shops. The growth is exponential.
The
demand has not even begun to grow…the industry is still tapping only “known”
markets…I am not speaking of geographical markets, but of intellectual ones….at
this point, there are CEOs and PhDs walking around who do not know of Dufour,
Vianney Halter or MB&F.
It is like
finding a chairman of a listed company who does not know the differences
between basic red and white wines…the education has not even begun.
THAT is the situation for 95% of the population
in FIRST world economies..As far as watches are concerned.
The education is growing at a rate faster
than the supply of good watches. It may mean that within the next 5 years, just
as the economy is robust, the demand for the good stuff will be incredible. By
then, many unknown names may be highly sought after. Established names will
have a bigger market of the commercial segment, with the small makers cornering
the ultra high market, similar to supercar makers of today.
If one is looking to invest in a watch, what sorts of watches should you
look at (in terms of brands and/or features?) Which of the brands are
‘foolproof’ investments – and why?
To answer that, one must frame the mind and
then look at it from the perspectives of other disciplines of music, art and
wine.
There will always be new music, new art,
new dishes of food. Watch collecting is exactly like that. Once understood, it
is very absorbing…like in classical music and fine wine. With very different
and complex dynamics, but equally or more intriguing.
Most people see
only the superficial aspect of collecting. Limited editions!
In reality all
products that are unique are limited. Hence, one must search first and foremost
for a product that is unique, or is not to be replicated at lower cost.
That may be the
ONLY worthwhile factor.
The other
factors are moot points.
Beauty.
Rarity.
Demand.Longevity.
How and why do investment watches retain or increase their value over
the years?
Retain value: if they continue to be
exclusive, rare, cool (don’t forget that they have to be worn), and cannot be
replicated.
Increase value: rare and cool.
Those are the absolute factors.Discussion or arguments:
Well, one can say that the definition of
investment watches is a moot point.
The public, or even “old hands” at
investment watches will say ONLY PATEK PHILIPPE and ROLEX can be investments.
I don’t disagree with the selection of
these 2 brands…BUT I disagree with the EXCLUSIVITY of all other brands or
makers.
In fact, if you look at cars, art, wine,
property, musical instruments and my favorite…TEDDY BEARS, you will see that
those people who picked “blue chip” pieces are right in their estimate of
returns. BUT they never make hit the “home run”..ie the the small maker that
CANNOT be a blue chip stock because it is NOT “publicly listed on the main
board”.
The watchmakers are MOST definitely not making EXCLUSIVELY male gender watches.
They make women’s watches. They make watches…for BOTH male/female.
Henceforth, non gender watches, or to the uninitiated, “male” watches are superior.
Which are the women's watches that are worth investing in?
Lange Arcade in small size.
FP Journe Divine.
Small Patek 5059 perpetual calendar (men’s, but so small..that no man would wear it today)
Rolex Yachtmaster “boy size” platinum steel.
Rolex GMT “Pepsi Cola” in sapphires and rubies.
Bulgari Scuba Pro Diagono Gold
Cartier Santos Big sizes for men ( usually worn by women)
Panerais in small sizes
MB&F 3
MB&F 2
Vianney Halter Antiqua
How have the value of women’s watches evolved over the years, what are the factors influencing this value?
Not as fast as men’s.
Men buy toys. Women buy jewelry..those are the factors.
Women see art, recognise it, faster than men.
Women are NOT interested in complications (majority at least), hence the marketing bounces off their brains.
What’s the status of the investment value of women’s watches today?
Today??? ZERO.
The watches that women have bought…they have not entered into the resale market YET!!! Today, one sees the watches men have bought for their mistresses, ex wives etc…or women who have dumped unwanted pieces into the resale sector. BAD values.
Tomorrow. Totally different.
What about independents – are they worth investing in? Why/why not?
Independants?!?! Of course they are
good…just PICK the right one.
Unlike brands, independents don’t market or
leverage on their brand..they sell their work.
So..some will sell you fake work.
Some will sell real work.
The real work..you have to pick the GOOD
stuff. AND..as in supply/demand, they will deliver BETTER margins.
